10/10/07

LCS Predictions

By Matt Smith

Buster Olney was the only expert on ESPN with enough guts to steer his ship clear of picking the Boston Red Sox to beat the Cleveland Indians, thus advancing to the World Series.
I guess I don’t know if that is guts or ignorance, but I appreciate it.
I am not an expert, but I think I know enough to know that the Red Sox are going to beat the Indians in the American League Championship Series. My heart really wants to go with Cleveland, seeing as they haven’t won a World Series since 1948 but my brain knows that the Red Sox have the total package.
The Sox hit, pitch and field well and probably own the biggest home field advantage with the quirks of Fenway. Boston also beat the Indians five times out of seven in the regular season, and the last time they faced them in the post-season was in the 1999 ALDS when they won the last three games to come back from an 0-2 deficit to take the series.
I don’t think the Red Sox can beat C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona back-to-back, so Cleveland will salvage the split. I also can’t see Cleveland winning both games Jake Westbrook and Paul Byrd pitch, so essentially I see this series going seven games.
That seventh game will obviously be at Fenway, and it’s nearly impossible to pick against Boston in a deciding game at home.
Prediction: Sox in seven.

Does anyone remember the last time the Rockies lost?
It was September 16 and the pitcher in that game was Arizona’s Brandon Webb, the very same Brandon Webb that is starting game one of the NLCS for the Diamondbacks.
I wouldn’t exactly consider game one a sure thing for Arizona, considering that September 16 start was the only time that the sinker baller beat the Rox in six starts over the season. He was 1-3 against them as the three losses were the most he had against any team. His 5.77 ERA against them was the highest of any opponent he faced during the regular season as well.
The Rockies also took the season series, winning 10 of the 18 games against their NL West rivals.
I guess it sounds like I am really high on the Rockies, and the truth is I am. Not so much because I think they are amazing (which they have been) but more because of how horrible I think the Diamondbacks are.
Colorado is hotter, they have more talent and they are the best fielding team in baseball. I will take a middle of the order with Tulowitzki, Holliday, Helton, Atkins and Hawpe over Mark Reynolds, Connor Jackson, Eric Byrnes and whichever other overachieving bums that happen to be in the Arizona lineup on that particular day.
Prediction: Rockies in six.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Nice Sox prediction. That lineup is just unfair. Slugger after big slugger. Even the little guys hit the hell out of the ball.
Sox in the series in five.
-Mark