BCS party could get crashed

By Matt Smith

As Ben Malley reported, it’s pretty much life or death this year (any year for that matter) for the Michigan Wolverines.
They haven’t beaten Ohio State since 2003, which means that great players such as Mike Hart, Chad Henne, Mario Manningham and Jake Long have never beaten Ohio State.
They must if they want to belong.
They also must so there can be at least some semblance of order in the BCS.
If Michigan does not win that game, thus claiming the Big Ten crown and smelling the roses, chaos will ensue. And by chaos, I mean the winner of the Boise State v. Hawaii game is probably going to get a berth into a BCS game.
Normally, I am all for the little guy getting a chance to play in the BCS games, like Utah in 2004 and Boise last year. But I am only all for it when that team is good enough to compete with the teams from the bigger conferences.
This year, I don’t think the Rainbows (wait, now they’re just the Warriors) or the Broncos are at a caliber where they could stay in a game with West Virginia, Oklahoma or Georgia. I think a team like Kansas Virginia Tech or Boston College would flatten them.
So why is it possible for the winner of that game to get a BCS nod?
That’s a great question and it’s because of the overall competitive balance (that, or teams sucking) in the Big East and the ACC. In the Big East, I think it’s the former and the ACC it’s more of the latter.
With the rule that screwed Wisconsin last year, that each conference can have a maximum of two teams play in a BCS game, there could be a door open if West Virginia wins the Big East outright.
The Big East has some very good teams, but if WV wins it without a tie, Cincy and Connecticut (which are quality teams) are not going to get a berth with three losses. If one of those two teams can beat WV and tie for the Big East title, I think two teams will come out of the Big East. But for now, let’s just assume the Mountaineers are going to win the conference (because they are).
The ACC has no chance of getting two teams. The winner of the Boston College/Clemson game will get a crack at Virginia Tech (or Virginia) for the ACC crown. The loser of that game will have three losses. The loser of the ACC championship game will have three losses as well. No three-loss ACC team is getting a BCS bid this year.
The Pac-10 is going to have Oregon and the winner of the Arizona State/USC game. Let’s just assume Oregon reaches the BCS title game and that USC goes to the Rose Bowl, because Arizona State is still Arizona State.
The Big 12 is going to get two teams, and it will be Oklahoma and probably the winner of the Kansas/Missouri game. If the Tigers win and lose to the Sooners for a second time while Kansas has one loss, then it could get ugly. I am going to assume Mizzou beats Kansas (because I think it will) and so for now let’s assume that OU and Mizzou get BCS berths.
Now comes the SEC where Georgia has a lot to lose by Tennessee losing. If the Vols win out, they will win the SEC East and face LSU in the SEC title game. They will lose that game and be 9-4. Despite pummeling Georgia earlier in the year, four losses will keep them from BCS consideration. Georgia will probably finish the year 10-2 and if they don’t have to play LSU in the SEC title game, they will not earn a third loss and will be ranked in the top six or so and therefore be an easy selection as the second team (to go with LSU) out of the SEC to earn a BCS game.
If the Vols lose one of their next two games, Georgia will likely win the SEC East and a third loss could do them damage, maybe even give the committee an excuse to select a three-loss Florida team that Georgia beat. I think when it’s all said and done, a two-loss Georgia team is going to get picked and even if the Dawgs do lose in the SEC title game, I think 10-3 will be good enough. The SEC will get two teams regardless, but let’s assume LSU and Georgia get the BCS berths.
So, that gives us WV, LSU, Georgia, the ACC champ, Oregon, USC, Oklahoma and Missouri (or Kansas) as eight teams likely to get into the big bowl games.
This is why the Michigan/Ohio State game is so big. If Michigan loses, there is no way a four-loss Wolverine team gets a BCS game which means the Big Ten gets one team. That leaves a spot open for the WAC winner.
I know Michigan is not outstanding, but I will take a three-loss Michigan team and a two-loss Buckeye team over the winner of the Hawaii/Boise State game this year.
As Ben is undoubtedly saying numerous times this week while in Ann Arbor: Go Blue!!