The Bubble

By Matt Smith

Temple snagged the A-10 bid, but we think that St. Joe's is a lock. Other "bubble" teams like St. Mary's and South Alabama are locks as well. Baylor and Kentucky on the other hand are pretty much locks, but not quite enough to take off the bubble watch. Here is how it stands right now as we see it.
By our conservative count, there are 59 teams that are essentially locks, meaning there are six spots left for the teams listed below. Their resume's are in order according to who we think will probably get in.

Baylor
Record: 21-10 (20-10 vs. Division I teams)
SOS: 40
RPI: 43
Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-8
Quality wins: Notre Dame, Kansas State, Texas A&M
Outlook: The Bears are probably in, but wouldn't be sweating had they not been upset by a bad Colorado team.

Kentucky
Record: 18-12
SOS: 15
RPI: 47
Record vs. RPI top 50: 4-6
Quality wins: Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi, Florida.
Outlook: There isn't enough time to discuss this team. They were horrible outside of the SEC, but went 12-4 in conference play. Losing to Georgia in the SEC Tournament ended a roller coaster regular season with them not quite a lock. They have some good wins, but they are all within conference play.

Arizona Record: 19-14 (18-14 vs. Division I teams)
SOS: 2
RPI: 38
Record vs. RPI top 50: 5-8 (0-7 vs. top 25, 5-1 vs. 26-50)
Quality wins: UNLV, Washington State (2), USC, Texas A&M.
Outlook: This team is very Jekyll and Hyde, but has put together enough good wins and obviously a good enough schedule and RPI to be deserving.

Arizona State Record: 19-12
SOS: 88
RPI: 83 Record vs. RPI top 50: 5-7
Quality wins: Xavier, Oregon, Arizona (2), Stanford, USC.
Outlook: If Arizona gets in, Arizona State gets in. The Sun Devils have beat plenty of good teams, including Arizona twice. A weak non-conference schedule is hurting their SOS and RPI.

Illinois State
Record: 23-9
SOS: 65
RPI: 34
Record vs. RPI top 50: 2-5
Quality wins: Creighton (2).
Outlook: Experts seem to think they're in, but we don't necessarily agree. They haven't beaten a tournament team. The Missouri Valley Conference usually gets a lot of respect, so expect them to sneak in over more deserving team.

Villanova
Record: 20-12
SOS: 47
RPI: 51
Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-7
Quality wins: Syracuse (2), Temple, Pittsburgh, Seton Hall, West Virginia, Connecticut.
Outlook: They have a solid resume, but getting blown about by Georgetown in the Big East Tournament is not a good last impression. Nova will be one of the last teams in or out.

Oregon
Record: 18-13
SOS: 30
RPI: 58
Record vs. RPI top 50: 4-9
Quality wins: Arizona (2), Arizona State, Kansas State.
Outlook: The Ducks have a worse record, RPI and SOS than Syracuse, so I can't see them getting in ahead of the Orange. Since the Orange aren't getting in, don't count on the Pac-10 getting that seventh team.

Ohio State
Record: 19-13
SOS: 10
RPI: 46
Record vs. RPI top 50: 2-10
Quality wins: Syracuse, Florida, Minnesota, Michigan State
Outlook: The Buckeyes played a tough schedule, but didn't do much against it. Probably not going to happen for the Buckeyes.

Virginia Tech
Record: 19-12
SOS: 52
RPI: 54
Record vs. RPI top 50: 1-6
Quality wins: Maryland (2), Miami.
Outlook: Despite Seth Greenberg saying anyone who think's they don't belong in the Tourney is insane, the Hokies still lack a big win to show they belong. Look for the Hokies to be left out.

Syracuse
Record: 19-13
SOS: 9
RPI: 55
Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-8
Quality wins: Villanova, Georgetown, Marquette, St. Joe's.
Outlook: Syracuse played a tough schedule and beat three tournament bound teams, but did next to nothing outside of that. They're not quite as far out as ESPN.com expert Joe Lunardi has them, because I think the Orange will be seriously discussed, but come up short.

Virgina Commonwealth
Record: 24-7
SOS: 160
RPI: 56
Record vs. RPI top 50: 0-2
Quality wins: Maryland
Outlook: The Rams will be in the discussion, but they were one of the teams squirming when teams like San Diego started bursting bubbles. They will be discussed, but probably not to seriously.