College Hoops Notes: More Tourney tickets punched

By Matt Smith

Four teams have followed Cornell into the NCAA Tournament as Winthrop, Belmont, Austin Peay and Drake have made it official by winning their conference tournaments.
Drake was probably on its way to the Big Dance anyway, but not having to wait around on selection Sunday and wonder is always a huge relief.
Drake’s win is big for a lot of teams, because it keeps Illinois State on the bubble, giving teams like Florida, Maryland, Villanova, Dayton, Ohio State, Virginia Tech and Oregon a chance to make an impression the committee while Illinois State waits for its fate to be decided.
Four more automatic bids will be handed out on Monday and for those aforementioned bubble teams, they hope that it goes according to plan in the Southern Conference.
Davidson, which is in the tourney regardless, is playing a 14-18 team in Elon. An Elon win would be devastating to bubble teams.
San Diego and Gonzaga will play for the West Coast Conference title, and the bubble teams are praying that Gonzaga takes care of business because a Torero win gives the WCC a chance at three teams. St. Mary's might have put itself as much on the bubble as anyone though, blowing a big lead against USD on Sunday night.
The Colonial’s argument for two teams took a hit when VCU lost to William & Mary in the semi-finals, meaning the winner of the George Mason and Bill & Mary game will likely be the only team to go from the CAA.
The Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference will also have a team punch its ticket when Siena and Rider, the conference’s top two teams, square off.

Bracket Watch: Some major shifts in the conferences as teams play themselves in and out.

Big East
Ticket punched: Georgetown, Louisville, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Marquette, Pittsburgh, West Virginia.
Probably: Syracuse
Outside looking in: Villanova
As of right now, the Big East has seven locks. The Syracuse/Villanova game in the first round of the Big East Tourney is essentially an elimination game. If Syracuse wins, put it at a lock for the eighth team. If Villanova wins, it will likely need one more win. A loss would put the Orange squarely on the bubble and it would probably end up to them getting left out.

ACC
Ticket punched: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson.
Probably: Miami.
Outside looking in: Virginia Tech, Maryland.
Virginia Tech and Maryland have played out of the tournament and probably need to win at least two games in the ACC tourney, maybe even needing three and ending up in the finals. Both of them have horrible records against the RPI’s top 50. Maryland’s only good win is beating North Carolina and Virginia Tech boasts two wins against Maryland, and that’s it.

Big 12
Ticket punched: Texas, Kansas.
Probably: Kansas State, Texas A&M, Baylor, Oklahoma.
Outside looking in: Nebraska.
The four teams likely to get in are essentially locks at this point. You can’t count one of them getting upset in the first round of the Big 12 and landing squarely on the bubble.

Big Ten
Ticket punched: Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State.
Probably: None.
Outside looking in: Ohio State.
The Buckeyes just complicated matters, hurting a team like VCU by beating Michigan State. Is it enough? We shall see. They probably need to avoid a first round Big Ten Tourney loss.

Pac-10
Ticket punched: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, USC.
Probably: Arizona State, Arizona.
Outside looking in: Oregon.
The most compelling conference not called the Big East might see seven teams squeeze in. Arizona State should be in with five wins against the RPI top 50, and Oregon just made a case by beating Arizona. If the three of them win one Pac-10 tourney game, they probably all get in.

SEC
Ticket punched: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State.
Probably: Arkansas, Kentucky.
Outside looking in: Mississippi, Florida.
Kentucky gets moved from outside looking in, to probably after beating Florida. The Wildcats are playing without Patrick Patterson and have still found a way to go 11-4 in the SEC. With a strong RPI (50) and a very strong SOS (11), they have probably done enough. Florida, on the other hand, has an RPI of 62 and an SOS of 85.

Others
Ticket punched: Gonzaga, Memphis, Butler, Xavier, Davidson.
Probably: St. Mary’s, Kent State, BYU, UNLV, Illinois State, Massachusetts, New Mexico, South Alabama, St. Mary's.
Outside looking in: Houston, UAB, Western Kentucky, Dayton, VCU.
Bubble teams are hoping Butler and Davidson win the conference or else it will take spots away from teams sitting on the fringe. VCU is probably out after failing to reach the finals, which could be a blessing for a bubble team. Had the Rams made the final and loss, the Colonial probably gets two.

Rankings: North Carolina earned a tough win at Cameron Indoor while UCLA pulled two rabbits out of its hat as those teams move up to stay at two and three. Kansas and Georgetown saw its stock rise while Xavier’s dipped a bit. Davidson creeps into the rankings for the first time.

1. Memphis (30-1)
2. North Carolina (29-2)
3. UCLA (28-3)
4. Tennessee (28-3)
5. Kansas (28-3)
6. Georgetown (25-4)
7. Duke (26-4)
8. Texas (26-5)
9. Wisconsin (26-4)
10. Butler (24-4)
11. Xavier (26-5)
12. Notre Dame (24-6)
13. Drake (28-4)
14. Purdue (24-7)
15. Connecticut (24-7)
16. Louisville (24-7)
17. Stanford (24-6)
18. Vanderbilt (25-6)
19. BYU (25-6)
20. Washington State (23-7)
21. Michigan State (24-7)
22. Indiana (25-6)
23. Gonzaga (25-6)
24. Marquette (22-8)
25. Davidson (25-6)