MLB Notes: Dominant pitching a thing of the past

By Matt Smith

It has always been said that pitching and defense is what wins you World Series titles, and for the most part that seems to be true. Whichever team’s pitching staff gets hotter or goes deeper rotation wise, seems to be hanging around in October.
Look at the last five champions: 2007- Red Sox, 2006- Cardinals, 2005- White Sox, 2004- Red Sox, 2003- Marlins.
The only team you think of on that list that didn’t win it with great pitching when it counted was the Red Sox of ’04, but let’s not forget that that team had five 10-game winners, including Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling.
The other four teams were led by phenomenal pitching, especially that White Sox team. Last year’s Red Sox team could score runs, but they were invariably led by their pitching when it came down to it.
So as teams look to build deeper rotations built for making late season pushes, we have seen the demise of tremendous 1-2 combinations with teams. There aren’t very many Sandy Koufax/Don Drysdale or Palmer/Mike Cuellar combinations that strike fear into you.
Granted, those were some of the best pitchers of their team, but the point is that when you look at team’s rotation these days, very few jump out at you as having a great 1-2 punch.
Here is what I think are today’s top five combinations and it’s not just based on combined wins, or combined ERA. A lot of factors are taken into consideration, including whether or not a team should be worried about facing a certain guy.

1. C.C. Sabathia/Fausto Carmona, Cleveland: Not only did the two combine for 38 wins, an ERA of 3.14 and 336 K’s, they are ages 27 and 24 respectively. They throw cheddar in the high 90’s and they are only going to get better. To me this is the best 1-2 combination in baseball right now.

2. Brandon Webb/Dan Haren, Arizona: The Diamondbacks already had the second best pitcher in the National League last year, so they when it and added one of the five best in the American League. Webb had a career year with wins (18), ERA (3.01), and strikeouts (194). Now Haren brings his American League-leading ERA of 3.07 to the NL, where there is an automatic out every time the ninth spot comes up.

3. John Lackey/Kelvim Escobar, Anaheim: A combined 37 wins, 339 K’s and an ERA in the low three’s is all fine and dandy, but the stuff factor plays a big role here. On a lot of days, either of these two has such good stuff that you can’t imagine how they won’t win 20 games for the rest of their career.

4. Erik Bedard/Felix Hernandez, Seattle: In terms of just pure upside, this is as dangerous a tandem that exists. They both have filthy stuff and you never, ever want to face either one of them. They do have some concerns about staying healthy, but they will combine for close to 35 wins this year and a whole lot of strikeouts.

5. Tim Hudson/John Smoltz, Atlanta: As much of a slam dunk as the other four tandems were, the fifth duo is completely open to debate. I couldn’t pick another tandem over these two just based on grit, determination and experience. Combining for 30 wins, an ERA of 3.22 and 329 K’s also speaks very highly of the duo.

What if duo’s: As far as a tandem that makes you think what if so and so could just stay healthy or things of that nature, one pops into my mind as more prominent than the rest and that is the duo in Toronto. Roy Halladay is an ace on just about any staff, and with the stuff A.J. Burnett has, Blue Jay fans must have thought that 40 percent of the time they were looking at an automatic win. But Burnett has been injury prone which has ruined a potential top five tandem.

On the Verge: There are several teams with young pitchers who are very close to being a prominent 1-2 punch and two pop into mind in particular. Scott Kazmir and James Shields in Tampa Bay are probably a year away from being a lock down top part of the rotation and Justin Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman could be even better in Detroit. Verlander is clearly there already and Bonderman has stuff, but just needs to put it together.

In the future: In two or three years, we will be talking about two of the top duos being on the West Coast with the Giants having two studs, Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum at the top of the rotation, with the Dodgers countering with their two budding stars, Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw.

Left off the list: The question here is how much having perhaps the best pitcher in baseball makes up for the lack of a solid No. 2, and since this is dynamic duo’s, it doesn’t make up for it very much, hence not seeing Johan Santana on this list. John Maine does not strike fear into the heart of anyone and Pedro Martinez has a lot to prove after not pitching for a year. Clearly Josh Beckett is a stud, but with Curt Schilling’s status and future unknown and with Daisuke Matsuzaka’s inconsistencies, it’s hard to consider the Red Sox ace. Jake Peavy is probably the best righty in the NL, but Chris Young is wild, inconsistent and too overrated to include on this list. The Cubs’ Carlos Zambrano is insane and Ted Lilly is not someone I trust in a big game. Roy Oswalt is super good, but the Astros rotation behind him is one of the worst assembled in recent years.

300 wins or bust: Entering the 2008 baseball season, there are two pitchers with perceivable, yet unrealistic chances at reaching the 300-win plateau; Randy Johnson, who enters with 284 wins and Mike Mussina, who has 250.
Johnson is 45 with back problems, but a very good year, or perhaps if he hangs on for another year, could get him there. I don’t think he’ll have the gas on the tank. Mussina is 38 and would just need four seasons of 12-13 wins a year, but I am not sure he can even do that anymore.
After these two, there is no feasible chance for anyone to reach that mark for a long time.
To put in perspective, Barry Zito is 29, and has 113 wins. Roy Oswalt is also 29 with 112 wins. Roy Halladay is 30 with 111 wins, and 28-year old Johan Santana, perhaps the most dominating pitcher in the game, has only 93 wins.
These guys are or were dominant and they still cannot reach that plateau. The player with the biggest outside chance is C.C. Sabathia, who will be 27 this season and has 100 wins. I say outside chance because he would need to average 20 wins a year for the next 10 years to get there. That or hang around until he is 44.
Pitching has morphed and we should say goodbye to the 300-win benchmark. I think 200 wins in this day in age is amazing and 250 wins is something we may never hear of again in our lifetime.
Baseball is an offensive minded game and has been for nearly 40 years, which is why we see batting records being shattered and pitching records not being touched.
Can anyone guess how many active pitchers are in the top 100 all-time in ERA? One. Pedro Martinez with a 2.80 career ERA is tied for 100th. After his first outing this year, he will fall out of the top 100.
Can you imagine?? A career ERA in today’s day and age and it’s not top 100 worthy?
Can you guess how many active pitchers are in the top 100 in complete games? Top 200? 300? 400? Zero. Top 500? One. Curt Schilling with 83. Shutouts? Three. Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux and there won’t be anyone approaching the top 100 for a long-time with the next highest active total being 25 by Tom Glavine, good for a 173rd place tie. There isn’t anyone under 35 in the top 500.
I guess this is a long way of me saying that I am a purist, who likes two hours games, that end 2-1 where both pitchers go at least seven innings. This type of game hasn’t existed in my lifetime and probably never will.

Girardi’s reaction: This was an interesting topic for discussion. How could Yankees new manager Joe Girardi, with a straight face, defend Shelley Duncan for coming in high on a takeout slide against Tampa Bay’s Aki Iwamura, just days after going on a tirade about a clean hit at home plate that injured a Yankee Minor League catcher.
He argued that there was no place for that in Spring Training, but then defended Duncan. Yes, it’s hypocritical and yes he looks like a jackass, but the thing is he is just being a Major League manager. He is defending his players.
I would expect any manager to do it, and I don’t think he is correct in what he is saying, but you have to do it; especially if you are the brand new manager of the New York Yankees. Does Girardi bother me? Yes. Would I expect Joe Torre or Bruce Bochey to do the same thing and what it bother me more or less pending on who was doing it? Probably.
It’s all part of the game.